I’m not a paranoid man, though I’m sure lots of people say that I am. And I don’t like conspiracy theories, except I’ve got some sentimental affection for the ones that allow people to say, “…and that’s why we have to live in this underground shelter for thirty to forty years.” Especially when the speaker is some sort of eccentric-looking lab coat-clad scientist and the person he is speaking to is a girls’ college volleyball team and they’re all in black-and-white and at least one of the volleyball-playing women bites her fist in apprehension upon hearing that news. Those are all right, I guess.

So, with very few exceptions, not a conspiracy guy.

But when I look at this lead sentence…

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic candidates have a big edge on Republicans one month before elections to decide control of Congress, a flurry of new polls said on Monday, with ratings for President George W. Bush and Congress dropping after the Capitol Hill sex scandal.

…well, you kind of have to think that if you ever were going to be the paranoid type and the kind of person who indulges in non-fallout-shelter-and-coed-related conspiracy theories… well, this next month would be the time to do it.

Right now the Republican leadership is looking at a situation that has suddenly gone from “We just gotta stay the course, only harder!” to “Dear God, somebody DO something!” Anybody who understands story structure knows that this means we’re just a few days away from someone saying, “It’s crazy, but it just might work!” and someone replying, “It better, it’s our only chance!” These sentences will be uttered deep underground in some think tank/lair, and they will set in motion a complicated machinery that will, above ground, lead to…

… I don’t know what. And frankly I don’t even know “if,” not really. But it seems reasonable, and at this point I’d be genuinely surprised if there wasn’t an October Surprise from the party in charge. And probably a really big one, a big crazy one, like some brain-dead woman being cloned and then euthanized by a married gay doctor aboard a swift boat owned by the atheist Senator Blowjob (D., Some Northeast State). Something big like that.

Again, I can’t predict the future (the insurance costs these days just made it impractical). But you might be able to. Feel free to Predict the Surprise in the comments below. It’s our most exciting contest yet, and the winner wins the right to tell his or her friends, “This outrageous and depressingly successful political gambit sucks in the exact way that I predicted it would.”

Not our best prize, maybe. But a great contest nonetheless. Enjoy!