By now you’ve probably heard about Ashleegate. On Saturday Night Live this week, the 19 year-old pop sensation left the stage after her voice started singing the wrong song without her (the video is right here). The way our Ashlee dealt with the crisis, subsequent revelations about her previous stand against lip-syching, and her fans’ reaction to it all should made one thing abundantly clear to everyone:

Forget your “October Surprise.” No revelations about George Bush are going to sway his voter base in any way.

Stick with me here. It really is amazing how Ashlee’s so-called disgrace compares to and illuminates the Presidency.

Hitchhiking on the Road to Ruin
If you’re going to make a serious mistake, old-fashioned popular wisdom says you’d ought to avoid making public statements that will make you look like a hypocrite as well. First, there’s the embarrassing revelation about the run-up to Ashleegate. In a recent Lucky magazine interview, Ashlee spoke about lip-synching: “I’m totally against it and offended by it. I’m going out to let my real talent show, not to just stand there and dance around. Personally, I’d never lip-synch. It’s just not me.”

Let me direct your attention to the Presidential Debate, 2000, when George W. Bush said: “I don’t think our troops ought to be used for what’s called nation-building.” And, “It really depends upon how our nation conducts itself in foreign policy. If we’re an arrogant nation, they’ll resent us. If we’re a humble nation, but strong, they’ll welcome us.”

Would these blatantly retroactively contradictory statements come back to haunt our heroes? No. Not really.

Riverdancing While Rome Burns
When things started to go wrong on SNL, Ashlee broke into a demented high-stepping jig. And then she just walked off the stage, leaving the band to play on. And then she blamed the band later for “playing the wrong song.”

Bush, of course, initially flirted with all kinds of bizarre locutions to describe the lack of WMD’s. but when this PR related program activity didn’t work, he avoided answering direct questions about it for over a year. Then he blamed the intelligence community for playing the wrong song.

It’s worth noting that neither Bush nor Ashlee have actually fired anyone responsible for these colossal blunders. You’d think that this would therefore compel them to back off and take personal responsibility for ‘em. You’d think it would have to be one or the other.

You’d think.

It’s the Faith, Stupid
In the 36 hours since her bizarre performance as a hillbilly mime, you’d expect Ashlee’s career to have tumbled. You’d be wrong. She’s got performing gigs lined up, she’s getting more press than ever, and - most significantly - her fans are flocking to defend her. To slam the point home, let me offer some comments from the faithful, cadged from her website:

- Good excuses: “Anyone who follows Ashlee knows she needed vocal rest a while back. Over use will just flare up her vocal chord strain. Regular people just assume there is no pressure on celebs or that they don’t have any feelings.
Still love ya , Ashlee. In one ear and out the other!”

- It’s what’s inside that counts: “I think that there are so many positive things about Ashlee Simpon and these are the things we should be focusing on. She has alot to offer the teens of today with her good morals and values. Focus on that and not what happened on SNL, we are all human and crap happens! She has alot of good music.”

- You can’t know the pressures: “I want to see any of you who are dogging on Ashlee to get up on stage during SNL and sing in from of the world. LIVE!!”

- The jury is still out: “Because a recorded tape comes of Ashlee singing, everyone immediately assumes that she lip synchs. Maybe it was someone else’s fault, I don’t know, but you don’t know either.”

- And, ladies and gentlemen, my absolute favorite: “So what if she lied in her Lucky Magazine interview about never lip-syncing. She was just saying that so she didn’t upset people… Heck, lots of other singers don’t really sing, they lip-sync too. The only people that really sing aren’t very good looking anyway, so why would you want that? … Everybody is doing it. I love you Ashlee! I don’t care if you lie to us. Everybody lies, even the president! So just ignore the haters. God is on your side, and faith will pull you through this.”

And that’s really the crux of it. Forget October surprises and converting Bush voters - if you believe something in the core of your being, the way a teen believes in a pop star, there is nothing from the flawed and tawdry world of facts and reality that will change your mind. Proof denies faith, yes, but counter-proof seems to only strengthen it.

Ashlee and George have betrayed their followers, been caught in fibs and self-contradictions, and made themselves look utterly ridiculous in front of millions on live national television this month. But their fans know what’s in their hearts, and that’s what counts.

Maybe the idea of some starry-eyed and naive fan being able to look through a television and see into a vain, spoiled, over-privileged millionaire’s heart might seem ridiculous. But that’s not the point.

Not with Ashlee, either.