The signs are bad. Hiring’s off again. Consumer spending is slowing. The market’s taken some big hits. Oil’s up over 43 bucks a barrel. The encouraging data from the spring turned out to be a false promise, like the last line of that immortal bathroom graffiti verse, wherein the poet finds himself broken-hearted after paying his dime.

And tomorrow, the Fed will meet to decide on the fate of interest rates. It’s an economic Sophie’s Choice for them - raise the rate and slow down the hobbling economy. Don’t raise it and display a lack of confidence while risking inflation…

If this were a Paul Krugman column, I would now give you an entertaining and detailed recounting of how our economic policy has led us to this pass and an analysis of where our prospects for improvement lie.

But you’re not reading Krugman. You’re reading me. I don’t know why. I’m not reading me. I’m reading Krugman. Right now. Not even looking at what I’m typing. So I question your choice of economic analyst, to say the least. Still, as long as you’re here…

It’s not all George Bush’s fault. Mostly, though. I’d estimate that it’s 90% the fault of the administration that “never stops looking for new ways to harm our country and our people.” I think it’s safe to say that the Iraq War, which was supposed to make us more secure, lower oil prices, and increase confidence and hope worldwide… hasn’t done so, exactly. It’s kinda done the opposite, while contributing to the ballooning of our deficit. And then there’s the tax cuts, which, Bush claims, saved us from an even worse economic downturn. So my guess is that if we hadn’t had those tax cuts we’d all be living in shanties and buying 5 cent apples from old Mr. Trump, the tramp on the corner who “used to be somebody.”

Obviously, some of the less-responsible Democrats and alarmists will be tempted to make political hay from this. Me, I intend to make it by the bushel. This blog’ll look like a frickin’ Monet by the time I’m through. The administration took credit for the Positive Signs, but these new negative ones are going to have to be blamed on a new “trifecta” of excuses (the old one, you’ll recall, was a war, a recession, and a national emergency). My pick for the new trifecta: “War, a couple of really bad breaks, and the fact that the dog ate our nation’s homework.”

The actual excuses offered in the days to come probably won’t jibe with my prediction. They’ll probably have to do with nefarious Democrats, or we’ll be told that we’re wrong, that the economy is actually tip-top, rollin’ along, and just plain super-duper. But then, you knew my predictions wouldn’t be all that good. You should’ve been reading Krugman. I was.